Tea is a significant global commodity, with an industry worth tens of billions of dollars and growing. However, its production—both in terms of quantity and quality—is highly sensitive to climate variations, particularly in the context of long-term human-induced global warming and its associated shorter-term impacts such as extreme weather events.

To tackle this challenge, a collaborative initiative between UK and Chinese scientists and tea industry stakeholders has been launched. This project, known as "Tea-CUP" (Co-developing Useful Predictions), aims to develop actionable climate information, or "climate services," to inform adaptation measures and decision-making within the tea industry.

The initiative's progress is detailed in a recent paper published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (AAS) as a cover story.

"This collaborative effort exemplifies the goals of climate science: delivering climate services that benefit society directly," said Professor Zong-Liang YANG from the Jackson School of Geosciences at the University of Texas at Austin, editor of AAS.

The cover of Issue 12 of AAS featuring the Tea-CUP project report paper. (Image by AAS)

The cover photo was taken in a tea garden in south west China's Yunnan Province, one of the four major tea-producing regions in the country by Professor ZHOU Tianjun—one of the study's authors.

"Drought conditions in the southeastern periphery of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, including Yunnan, are expected to become more common due to the ongoing warming of the western Pacific warm pool," said Professor ZHOU. "For the tea industry, this means that accurate seasonal, daily, and regional forecasts would be invaluable for decision-making."

ZHOU is a key figure in fostering long-term collaboration between the UK Met Office and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

"The collaborative approach between the UK and China has demonstrated that integrating scientific knowledge with local expertise has the potential to enhance the resilience of the tea sector to climate variability and change, and develop more effective climate adaptation strategies for the tea industry," said Dr. Stacey New, an applied climate scientist working at the UK Met Office, and the paper's first author.

While the Tea-CUP project focuses on the key region of Yunnan, where the growth of tea plants is particularly sensitive to climate variability and change, and recent extreme weather has directly impacted tea yield and quality, affecting the livelihoods of local farmers and hindering sustainable development, the findings have broader implications.

Scientists collected diverse data on tea yield, plantation area and prices, as well as temperature and precipitation, and built models that reveal the interactions between climate variation and tea production.

These models help Tea-CUP scientists identify critical meteorological indicators affecting tea production, allowing stakeholders to understand how these factors influence yield and quality, thus guiding management decisions in a changing climate.

"Co-development of climate services tailored for the tea industry is essential for creating effective and usable climate information," said Professor LI Shaojuan from Yunnan University of Finance and Economics.

Currently, the climate services developed under the Tea-CUP project are prototypes. Future steps will involve refining and implementing these services, including the co-development of a subseasonal forecast for Yunnan and continued engagement with tea farmers, according to the scientists.

"Ultimately, the goal is to support the construction of a climate-resilient tea industry by fostering ongoing cross-cultural knowledge exchange, informing adaptation strategies, and ensuring that climate information is tailored to the needs of tea farmers and other stakeholders," said Dr. New.

The Tea-CUP project represents a significant advancement in climate services for the tea industry. Its framework can serve as a model for user engagement not only in other tea-producing regions in China, but also across various sectors globally.